The Autumn Budget puts affordability, first-time buyer support and landlord viability at the centre of mortgage conversations. The OBR expects the average effective mortgage rate to rise from around 4% in 2026 to about 5% by 2031 as borrowers refinance. Mortgage repayments are forecast to reach 4.25% of household disposable income by 2031, their highest share since 2009.
For advisers, this reinforces the need for earlier remortgage engagement, robust affordability stress-testing and clear protection discussions. Fixed-rate pricing may remain sensitive to inflation, gilt markets and post-Budget expectations, so clients should understand that product rates can change quickly even where the Bank Rate is unchanged.
- Segment clients by deal-end date and payment-shock exposure.
- Use AI-assisted CRM workflows to identify refinancing cohorts, but retain adviser oversight of recommendations and client communications.
- Ensure automated affordability prompts are explainable, accurate and do not replace full suitability assessment.