Housing policy risk is becoming a more visible part of mortgage advice. Berkeley Group has called for stamp-duty reform ahead of the Budget, including a proposed 1% cap for first-time buyers and downsizers and removal of the 5% surcharge on property investors. Separately, Propertymark has warned that proposed Scottish council-tax bands for higher-value homes could restrain activity if considered in isolation from wider property-tax reform.
Market conditions remain mixed. House prices were reported to have fallen 0.4% year-on-year in August, while low-deposit lending has reached an 18-year high. Demand may be supported by improving affordability in some segments, but buyers and landlords face uncertainty over rates, tax and regulation. Buy-to-let clients in particular need to model refinancing risk, fees, yields and future regulatory costs rather than relying on headline rates.
AI implication: Scenario-modelling tools can help advisers present the potential effects of rate changes, deposits, fees and tax assumptions in a clear format. However, AI must not present Budget speculation as confirmed policy. Assumptions, sources and limitations should be explicit, with tax questions referred to appropriately qualified specialists where needed.